How a Biden Presidency will affect Sri Lanka

Joe Biden takes oath as the 46th President of the United States today. In this article, I attempt to answer some of the frequently asked questions about Biden’s foreign policy and how it would affect Sri Lanka over the next few years.

At the outset I must confess that this is not meant to be a deep dive analysis and purely based on my personal views.

1. What is the biggest difference between Trump’s and Biden’s foreign policies?

The biggest departure from Trump’s foreign policy will be America’s focus on multilateralism under Biden.

During the past four years, the US has partially or completely withdrawn from multilateral diplomacy and institutions such as the Paris Agreement, UNHRC, WHO, WTO, etc. The US also initiated trade wars with China, the EU, India, Turkey, and several others.

Under Biden, the US will undoubtedly rejoin the Paris Agreement, and reengage with UN bodies such as the HRC, and other multilateral organizations such as the WHO and WTO. The nomination of Anthony Blinken for Secretary of State, Jake Sullivan as National Security Advisor, and Linda Thomas-Greenfield as the UN Ambassador all clearly point towards this shift — all three are strong supporters of multilateralism.

Also goes without saying, with Biden, we are going to see the end of “Twitter diplomacy”. Trump’s tweets have often caught even his own officials and close allies off guard and created a lot of uncertainty leading to sensitive policy decisions being undermined, such as the Afghanistan Peace Talks with the Taliban.

2. How different would Biden’s foreign policy look from Obama’s

In terms of a greater focus on multilateralism, Biden’s policies will look very similar to Obama’s. However, Biden is inheriting a very different world from Trump than what Trump inherited from Obama four years ago.

Biden has inherited a world where China is significantly stronger than it was four years ago, Russian interference in American politics has become bolder, Iran is moving back towards nuclear proliferation, North Korea has improved its nuclear capabilities, and traditional American allies have moved towards developing their own alternate political, economic, and security alliances since it considered the USA during the past four years as an “unreliable ally”. Meanwhile, Trump succeeded in facilitating the normalisation of relations between Israel and a handful of Middle East nations. However, this has come at the cost of completely neglecting the Palestinian cause and growing instability in the Middle East due to Iran-Saudi tensions, the Yemeni crisis, and the de-secularisation of Turkey.

All of these developments are now also underpinned by COVID-19. Therefore, while Biden’s focus on multilateralism will echo that of Obama, his policy nuances will showcase some key differences, crucially for Sri Lanka, with regards to dealing with China.

3. How will Biden approach China and what is the impact on Sri Lanka?

Biden will consider China as its biggest foreign policy challenge and he has been quite vocal about his disdain for the current Chinese administration, infamously calling Xi Jinping “a thug”. A recent poll found that 73 percent of Americans have a negative attitude towards China — which makes a tough stance politically viable. However, he will also need China’s cooperation in some areas such as climate change and dealing with North Korea. As such, a wholly antagonistic approach is unlikely.

Given the trade war’s significant cost to the American economy and the exacerbation of these costs due to COVID-19 disruptions, the appetite to reduce bilateral trade tensions will be higher. However, this is not to say that ending the trade war will end any tensions between the USA and China. Biden will most probably pursue strong political pressure on China’s recent actions in Hong Kong and alleged human rights abuses against Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. Meanwhile, a Biden administration will pursue greater economic pressure through the WTO process and through regional economic alliances.

Whether we like it or not, Sri Lanka is going to have to balance its geopolitical relationships with the likes of the USA, China, and India. We cannot afford to align ourselves to one more so than the other.

The good news for Sri Lanka is that Biden’s relative policy stability will help create a more stable global economic environment. For example, during the height of the trade war in 2017/18, the Sri Lankan rupee depreciated by almost 40% because of an outflow of capital investments in emerging economies (including Sri Lanka) due to the instability. Secondly, Biden’s US State Department is unlikely to try and pursue a “you are either with us or against us” stance, like what happened when Mike Pompeo visited Sri Lanka recently. Rather, there will likely be an emphasis on developing economic alliances in the region and more traditional American soft power manoeuvres. If managed smartly, Sri Lanka could maintain a neutral position in regional geopolitics while leveraging the economic and political advantages the US, India, and China afford. For context, the USA is still the biggest export destination for Sri Lankan products (24% of total exports worth $2.8 billion) and China and India are the two biggest sources of foreign investment and amongst the foremost sources of development finance. Arguably Vietnam, Bangladesh and the ASEAN bloc, over the past decade or so, have shown the ideal template to follow with regards to strategically leveraging regional bipartisanship. They have developed strategically valuable economic partnerships with both the US and China while remaining largely non-aligned about regional geopolitics.

4. Will Sri Lanka face more scrutiny at the UN Human Rights Council over the next few years?

Following Sri Lanka’s change in government, withdrawal from UNHRC Resolution 30/1 last year, and an increasing array of allegations regarding human rights violations (e.g. forced cremations), Sri Lanka was bound to face a brighter spotlight at the 2021 UNHRC session, regardless of who won the US Presidential election. Biden’s victory and reengagement on global human rights issues, however, would definitely reinforce the international community’s scrutiny of Sri Lanka’s human rights record. Therefore, all indications suggest that Sri Lanka will face some considerable pressure through the UNHRC in future sessions, both with regards to fulfilling its commitments to post-conflict reconciliation as well as other aspects of human rights.

The extent to which the USA will apply bilateral pressure on Sri Lanka, however, is unclear. These decisions will depend heavily on the Sri Lankan government’s efforts to engage with the new American administration as well as American regional geopolitical considerations as much as anything else — primarily the role and influence of China as well as Indian interests. For instance, regional security issues will likely be coordinated through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) made up of the USA, India, Japan, and Australia. Moreover, it is also important to note that some aspects of American foreign policy can be influenced through the US Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) — especially with regards to budgetary allocations, sanctions, authorising foreign aid, grants, etc. Therefore, Sri Lanka’s bilateral relationship with the USA is not solely dependent on the Biden Presidency.

5. What other aspects of American foreign policy will have impacts on Sri Lanka?

One major American foreign policy decision that will influence Sri Lanka is the Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran has historically been a major export destination for Sri Lankan agricultural products (e.g. tea, cinnamon) and has also been a major source of oil. When the Obama administration brokered the Iranian Nuclear Deal, Sri Lanka benefitted as it was then able to access a cheaper source of oil as well as reopen an important export market that had been closed due to sanctions. Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal and reimpose sanctions thus affected Sri Lanka.

Many believe that Biden will attempt to reengage with Iran and re-establish the Iran Nuclear Deal, which will be good news for Sri Lanka. However, Iran’s relationship with America has deteriorated rapidly under Trump and it is unclear if the trust deficit can be adequately addressed in order to convince Iran to recommit to nuclear non-proliferation.

The second major area of American policy that should be of critical importance to Sri Lanka is climate change. Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to climate change is well documented. Therefore, American commitment to tackling climate change by reducing emissions, investing in green tech and innovation, and the USA rejoining the Paris Agreement should all be seen as positive measures for Sri Lanka’s future.

6. Will Kamala Harris’ ethnic background have an influence on American policy towards Sri Lanka?

No.

As noted earlier, this is not an exhaustive list of American policies that would influence Sri Lanka. For instance, many American domestic policies, especially with regards to addressing COVID-19 and economic stimulus plans will have a major impact on American demand for Sri Lankan exports. However, this article simply summarises some of the major American foreign policy decisions that could have a direct impact on us. Finally, a kind reminder that this article is solely my opinion and should not be attributed to any organization with which I am affiliated.